Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$7.36 |
$6.78 |
$1.73 |
-7.9% |
$52.40 |
$1.31 |
$1.5 |
$2.82 |
$12.27 |
$87.06 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$147.05 |
$162.67 |
$107.00 |
+10.6% |
$246.69 |
$56.44 |
$75.32 |
$167.04 |
$319.23 |
$1266.03 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$924.78 |
$976.02 |
$794.85 |
+5.5% |
$604.33 |
$526.52 |
$665.91 |
$1028.55 |
$1994.05 |
$3983.25 |
7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| R |
1.6728 |
40.15 |
240.89 |
100.0% |
| Epic |
0.2806 |
6.73 |
40.40 |
100.0% |
| Overnumber |
0.0131 |
0.31 |
1.88 |
31.3% |
| Alt-Art Rune |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Crystal Rose |
0.0091 |
0.22 |
1.30 |
21.7% |
| Ultimate Rare |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Signature Overnumber |
0.0013 |
0.03 |
0.19 |
3.1% |
| Alt-Art Champion |
0.1029 |
2.47 |
14.82 |
100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| C |
normal |
7.0000 |
7.00 per pack |
Riot official Vendetta pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 foil any / 1 token) |
| UC |
normal |
3.0000 |
3.00 per pack |
Riot official Vendetta pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 foil any / 1 token) |
| C |
foilany |
0.6000 |
1 : 2 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
| UC |
foilany |
0.3000 |
1 : 3 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
| Epic |
foil |
0.2525 |
1 : 4 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Alt-Art Champion |
any |
0.1029 |
1 : 10 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Rune |
foil |
0.1000 |
1 : 10 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
| R |
foilany |
0.0778 |
1 : 13 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk) |
| Overnumber |
any |
0.0136 |
1 : 74 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Crystal Rose |
any |
0.0093 |
1 : 107 packs |
Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Signature Overnumber |
any |
0.0014 |
1 : 727 packs |
Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 39 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| C (normal) per pack |
7 |
7 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack |
3 |
3 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.111111 |
0.098222 |
-11.6% |
±82.5% |
PASS |
| CRYSTAL_ROSE (any) per pack |
0.006944 |
0.006599 |
-4.97% |
±82.5% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.263889 |
0.280058 |
+6.13% |
±82.5% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.027778 |
0.016279 |
-41.4% |
±141.42135623730948% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.09375 |
0.098222 |
+4.77% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| C (foilany) per pack |
0.6 |
0.615811 |
+2.64% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.25 |
0.280058 |
+12.02% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.01375 |
0.016279 |
+18.39% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack |
0.1 |
0.100012 |
+0.01% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.001375 |
0.00118 |
-14.19% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| UC (foilany) per pack |
0.3 |
0.304186 |
+1.4% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.