EV Statistics: Vendetta
Riftbound: League of Legends TCG • Monte Carlo simulation • model v3
Released July 31, 2026. Launch-week singles prices are still settling, so ROI here runs high and will drift down over the coming weeks.
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $8.36 | $20.65 | $13.03 | +147.0% | $39.47 | $6.55 | $9.59 | $20.21 | $46.76 | $186.41 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $128.22 | $495.59 | $441.69 | +286.5% | $173.41 | $335.8 | $386.72 | $563.55 | $771.55 | $1158.22 | 42,000 |
| Case | $789.95 | $2973.56 | $2901.26 | +276.4% | $426.82 | $2419 | $2681.91 | $3176.93 | $3790.01 | $4343.42 | 7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 1.6728 | 40.15 | 240.89 | 100.0% |
| Epic | 0.2806 | 6.73 | 40.40 | 100.0% |
| Overnumber | 0.0131 | 0.31 | 1.88 | 31.3% |
| Alt-Art Rune | 0.0000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| Crystal Rose | 0.0091 | 0.22 | 1.30 | 21.7% |
| Ultimate Rare | 0.0000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| Signature Overnumber | 0.0013 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 3.1% |
| Alt-Art Champion | 0.1029 | 2.47 | 14.82 | 100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | normal | 7.0000 | 7.00 per pack | Riot official Vendetta pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 foil any / 1 token) |
| UC | normal | 3.0000 | 3.00 per pack | Riot official Vendetta pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 foil any / 1 token) |
| C | foilany | 0.6000 | 1 : 2 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
| UC | foilany | 0.3000 | 1 : 3 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
| Epic | foil | 0.2525 | 1 : 4 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Alt-Art Champion | any | 0.1029 | 1 : 10 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Rune | foil | 0.1000 | 1 : 10 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
| R | foilany | 0.0778 | 1 : 13 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk) |
| Overnumber | any | 0.0136 | 1 : 74 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern); Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Crystal Rose | any | 0.0093 | 1 : 107 packs | Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk); Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) |
| Signature Overnumber | any | 0.0014 | 1 : 727 packs | Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 39 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C (normal) per pack | 7 | 7 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack | 3 | 3 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack | 0.111111 | 0.098222 | -11.6% | ±82.5% | PASS |
| CRYSTAL_ROSE (any) per pack | 0.006944 | 0.006599 | -4.97% | ±82.5% | PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack | 0.263889 | 0.280058 | +6.13% | ±82.5% | PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.027778 | 0.016279 | -41.4% | ±141.42135623730948% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack | 0.09375 | 0.098222 | +4.77% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| C (foilany) per pack | 0.6 | 0.615811 | +2.64% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack | 0.25 | 0.280058 | +12.02% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.01375 | 0.016279 | +18.39% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack | 0.1 | 0.100012 | +0.01% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.001375 | 0.00118 | -14.19% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| UC (foilany) per pack | 0.3 | 0.304186 | +1.4% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riot official Vendetta pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 foil any / 1 token) — Riot Games | official | — | 100% | 2 |
| Vendetta two-box retail opening — 48 packs (first-party, card-verified) — Cards EV Lab operator | case opening | 48 packs / 2 boxes | 60% | 4 |
| Vendetta release-week openings — 90 packs (TCG Talk) — TCG Talk | community aggregate | 90 packs / 3 boxes | 45% | 5 |
| Vendetta structural prior (RB1-RB3 measured cross-set pattern) — Cards EV Lab research | estimate | — | 30% | 8 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.