EV Statistics: Extra Booster: Memorial Collection
One Piece Card Game • Monte Carlo simulation • model v3
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $27.16 | $18.04 | $7.59 | -33.6% | $95.31 | $2.04 | $4.61 | $20.65 | $42.6 | $132.32 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $865.89 | $433.04 | $355.05 | -50.0% | $460.23 | $246.23 | $299.95 | $430.67 | $566.01 | $3547.95 | 42,000 |
| Case | $22500.00 | $5196.50 | $4516.44 | -76.9% | $1581.54 | $3960.9 | $4254.53 | $4996.2 | $7952.17 | $10848.72 | 3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 0.3333 | 8.00 | 96.00 | 100.0% |
| Manga Rare | 0.0008 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 2.0% |
| SR | 0.4997 | 11.99 | 143.92 | 100.0% |
| SEC | 0.1333 | 3.20 | 38.40 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Leader | 0.0151 | 0.36 | 4.36 | 36.3% |
| Alt-Art Rare | 0.1200 | 2.88 | 34.56 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare | 0.0601 | 1.44 | 17.30 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Secret | 0.0048 | 0.12 | 1.39 | 11.6% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR | any | 0.5000 | 1 : 2 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| L | any | 0.3333 | 1 : 3 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| SEC | any | 0.1333 | 1 : 8 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Rare | any | 0.1200 | 1 : 8 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare | any | 0.0600 | 1 : 17 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Leader | any | 0.0150 | 1 : 67 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Secret | any | 0.0050 | 1 : 200 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Manga Rare | any | 0.0009 | 1 : 1152 packs | EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 24 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA_L (any) per pack | 0.015 | 0.014569 | -2.87% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| AA_R (any) per pack | 0.12 | 0.12004 | +0.03% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| AA_SEC (any) per pack | 0.005 | 0.00483 | -3.41% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack | 0.06 | 0.060155 | +0.26% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| L (any) per pack | 0.333333 | 0.333333 | +0% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| MR (any) per pack | 0.000868 | 0.00088 | +1.37% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack | 0.133333 | 0.133439 | +0.08% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| SR (any) per pack | 0.5 | 0.50096 | +0.19% | ±97.5% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandai Extra Booster structure (EN: 12-card packs, 24-pack boxes, no leader cadence) — Bandai | official | — | 100% | 0 |
| EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) — samuraiswordtokyo / community aggregate | estimate | — | 35% | 8 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.