Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$27.16 |
$18.04 |
$7.59 |
-33.6% |
$95.31 |
$2.04 |
$4.61 |
$20.65 |
$42.6 |
$132.32 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$865.89 |
$433.04 |
$355.05 |
-50.0% |
$460.23 |
$246.23 |
$299.95 |
$430.67 |
$566.01 |
$3547.95 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$22500.00 |
$5196.50 |
$4516.44 |
-76.9% |
$1581.54 |
$3960.9 |
$4254.53 |
$4996.2 |
$7952.17 |
$10848.72 |
3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| L |
0.3333 |
8.00 |
96.00 |
100.0% |
| Manga Rare |
0.0008 |
0.02 |
0.24 |
2.0% |
| SR |
0.4997 |
11.99 |
143.92 |
100.0% |
| SEC |
0.1333 |
3.20 |
38.40 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Leader |
0.0151 |
0.36 |
4.36 |
36.3% |
| Alt-Art Rare |
0.1200 |
2.88 |
34.56 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
0.0601 |
1.44 |
17.30 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Secret |
0.0048 |
0.12 |
1.39 |
11.6% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| SR |
any |
0.5000 |
1 : 2 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| L |
any |
0.3333 |
1 : 3 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| SEC |
any |
0.1333 |
1 : 8 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Rare |
any |
0.1200 |
1 : 8 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
any |
0.0600 |
1 : 17 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Leader |
any |
0.0150 |
1 : 67 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Secret |
any |
0.0050 |
1 : 200 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
| Manga Rare |
any |
0.0009 |
1 : 1152 packs |
EB-01 Memorial Collection pull rates (Samurai Sword guide + cross-set EN pattern) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 24 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| AA_L (any) per pack |
0.015 |
0.014569 |
-2.87% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| AA_R (any) per pack |
0.12 |
0.12004 |
+0.03% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| AA_SEC (any) per pack |
0.005 |
0.00483 |
-3.41% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack |
0.06 |
0.060155 |
+0.26% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| L (any) per pack |
0.333333 |
0.333333 |
+0% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| MR (any) per pack |
0.000868 |
0.00088 |
+1.37% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack |
0.133333 |
0.133439 |
+0.08% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| SR (any) per pack |
0.5 |
0.50096 |
+0.19% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.