Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$18.99 |
$40.43 |
$8.44 |
+112.9% |
$200.42 |
$2.03 |
$3.36 |
$15.84 |
$77.4 |
$991.22 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$767.82 |
$970.23 |
$1182.56 |
+26.4% |
$863.74 |
$273.47 |
$357.76 |
$1350.89 |
$1648.03 |
$5403.96 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$7249.65 |
$11642.81 |
$11114.33 |
+60.6% |
$3046.36 |
$7620.23 |
$9511.78 |
$13107.93 |
$17581.42 |
$20981.77 |
3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| L |
0.3333 |
8.00 |
96.00 |
100.0% |
| Manga Rare |
0.0003 |
0.01 |
0.09 |
0.7% |
| Special |
0.0038 |
0.09 |
1.09 |
9.1% |
| SR |
0.4998 |
12.00 |
143.95 |
100.0% |
| SEC |
0.1335 |
3.20 |
38.45 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Leader |
0.0200 |
0.48 |
5.77 |
48.1% |
| Alt-Art Rare |
0.1200 |
2.88 |
34.57 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
0.0601 |
1.44 |
17.31 |
100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| SR |
any |
0.5000 |
1 : 2 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| L |
any |
0.3333 |
1 : 3 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| SEC |
any |
0.1333 |
1 : 8 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Rare |
any |
0.1200 |
1 : 8 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
any |
0.0600 |
1 : 17 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Leader |
any |
0.0200 |
1 : 50 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Special |
any |
0.0038 |
1 : 264 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Manga Rare |
any |
0.0003 |
1 : 3360 packs |
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 24 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| AA_L (any) per pack |
0.02 |
0.020518 |
+2.59% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| AA_R (any) per pack |
0.12 |
0.11978 |
-0.18% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack |
0.06 |
0.060515 |
+0.86% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| L (any) per pack |
0.333333 |
0.333333 |
+0% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| MR (any) per pack |
0.000298 |
0.00037 |
+24.31% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack |
0.133333 |
0.133539 |
+0.15% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| SP (any) per pack |
0.003788 |
0.00391 |
+3.22% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
| SR (any) per pack |
0.5 |
0.49981 |
-0.04% |
±97.5% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.