EV Statistics: Extra Booster: Anime 25th Collection
One Piece Card Game • Monte Carlo simulation • model v3
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $18.99 | $40.43 | $8.44 | +112.9% | $200.42 | $2.03 | $3.36 | $15.84 | $77.4 | $991.22 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $767.82 | $970.23 | $1182.56 | +26.4% | $863.74 | $273.47 | $357.76 | $1350.89 | $1648.03 | $5403.96 | 42,000 |
| Case | $7249.65 | $11642.81 | $11114.33 | +60.6% | $3046.36 | $7620.23 | $9511.78 | $13107.93 | $17581.42 | $20981.77 | 3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 0.3333 | 8.00 | 96.00 | 100.0% |
| Manga Rare | 0.0003 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.7% |
| Special | 0.0038 | 0.09 | 1.09 | 9.1% |
| SR | 0.4998 | 12.00 | 143.95 | 100.0% |
| SEC | 0.1335 | 3.20 | 38.45 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Leader | 0.0200 | 0.48 | 5.77 | 48.1% |
| Alt-Art Rare | 0.1200 | 2.88 | 34.57 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare | 0.0601 | 1.44 | 17.31 | 100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR | any | 0.5000 | 1 : 2 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| L | any | 0.3333 | 1 : 3 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| SEC | any | 0.1333 | 1 : 8 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Rare | any | 0.1200 | 1 : 8 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare | any | 0.0600 | 1 : 17 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Alt-Art Leader | any | 0.0200 | 1 : 50 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Special | any | 0.0038 | 1 : 264 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
| Manga Rare | any | 0.0003 | 1 : 3360 packs | EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 24 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA_L (any) per pack | 0.02 | 0.020518 | +2.59% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| AA_R (any) per pack | 0.12 | 0.11978 | -0.18% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack | 0.06 | 0.060515 | +0.86% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| L (any) per pack | 0.333333 | 0.333333 | +0% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| MR (any) per pack | 0.000298 | 0.00037 | +24.31% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack | 0.133333 | 0.133539 | +0.15% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| SP (any) per pack | 0.003788 | 0.00391 | +3.22% | ±97.5% | PASS |
| SR (any) per pack | 0.5 | 0.49981 | -0.04% | ±97.5% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandai Extra Booster structure (EN: 12-card packs, 24-pack boxes, no leader cadence) — Bandai | official | — | 100% | 0 |
| EB-02 Anime 25th Collection hit rates (dripshop/SNKRDUNK JP-derived + EN pattern) — community aggregate | estimate | — | 35% | 8 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.