Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$7.98 |
$9.61 |
$2.79 |
+20.4% |
$63.11 |
$1.46 |
$1.78 |
$6.26 |
$21.41 |
$108.24 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$172.55 |
$230.54 |
$143.49 |
+33.6% |
$300.85 |
$92.04 |
$116.3 |
$222.68 |
$538.14 |
$1972.89 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$1107.91 |
$1383.26 |
$1125.37 |
+24.9% |
$735.30 |
$750.53 |
$930.07 |
$1469.82 |
$3010.75 |
$3852.69 |
7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| R |
2.6099 |
62.64 |
375.83 |
100.0% |
| Epic |
0.2807 |
6.74 |
40.43 |
100.0% |
| Overnumber |
0.0131 |
0.31 |
1.88 |
31.4% |
| Alt-Art Rune |
0.0312 |
0.75 |
4.49 |
74.8% |
| Crystal Rose |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Ultimate Rare |
0.0009 |
0.02 |
0.13 |
2.1% |
| Signature Overnumber |
0.0014 |
0.03 |
0.20 |
3.3% |
| Alt-Art Champion |
0.0628 |
1.51 |
9.05 |
100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| C |
normal |
7.0000 |
7.00 per pack |
Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| UC |
normal |
3.0000 |
3.00 per pack |
Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| Epic |
foil |
0.2500 |
1 : 4 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Rune |
foil |
0.1000 |
1 : 10 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Champion |
any |
0.0625 |
1 : 16 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Rune |
any |
0.0313 |
1 : 32 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Overnumber |
any |
0.0138 |
1 : 73 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Signature Overnumber |
any |
0.0014 |
1 : 727 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Ultimate Rare |
any |
0.0009 |
1 : 1098 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Unleashed Ultimate Rare appearance rate (riftbound.gg / TCGOdds) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 30 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| C (normal) per pack |
7 |
7 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack |
3 |
3 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.0625 |
0.062295 |
-0.33% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_RUNE (any) per pack |
0.03125 |
0.031677 |
+1.37% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.25 |
0.279918 |
+11.97% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.01375 |
0.013229 |
-3.79% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack |
0.1 |
0.098722 |
-1.28% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.001375 |
0.00148 |
+7.63% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ULTIMATE_RARE (any) per pack |
0.000917 |
0.00116 |
+26.53% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ULTIMATE_RARE (any) per pack |
0.0009 |
0.00116 |
+28.88% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.