EV Statistics: Unleashed
Riftbound • Monte Carlo simulation • model v1
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $5.07 | $7.56 | $2.13 | +49.0% | $48.71 | $1.24 | $1.48 | $4.46 | $17.78 | $77.89 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $121.10 | $181.34 | $114.36 | +49.7% | $231.36 | $73.73 | $92.83 | $171.56 | $389.58 | $1538.45 | 42,000 |
| Case | $744.41 | $1088.01 | $899.05 | +46.2% | $561.17 | $603.95 | $743.93 | $1139.77 | $2346.57 | $2901.75 | 7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 2.6099 | 62.64 | 375.83 | 100.0% |
| Epic | 0.2807 | 6.74 | 40.43 | 100.0% |
| Overnumber | 0.0131 | 0.31 | 1.88 | 31.4% |
| Alt-Art Rune | 0.0312 | 0.75 | 4.49 | 74.8% |
| Ultimate Rare | 0.0009 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 2.1% |
| Signature Overnumber | 0.0014 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 3.3% |
| Alt-Art Champion | 0.0628 | 1.51 | 9.05 | 100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | normal | 7.0000 | 7.00 per pack | Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| UC | normal | 3.0000 | 3.00 per pack | Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| Epic | foil | 0.2500 | 1 : 4 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Rune | foil | 0.1000 | 1 : 10 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Champion | any | 0.0625 | 1 : 16 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Rune | any | 0.0313 | 1 : 32 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Overnumber | any | 0.0138 | 1 : 73 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Signature Overnumber | any | 0.0014 | 1 : 727 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Ultimate Rare | any | 0.0009 | 1 : 1098 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Unleashed Ultimate Rare appearance rate (riftbound.gg / TCGOdds) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 30 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C (normal) per pack | 7 | 7 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack | 3 | 3 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack | 0.0625 | 0.062295 | -0.33% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_RUNE (any) per pack | 0.03125 | 0.031677 | +1.37% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack | 0.25 | 0.279918 | +11.97% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.01375 | 0.013229 | -3.79% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack | 0.1 | 0.098722 | -1.28% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.001375 | 0.00148 | +7.63% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| ULTIMATE_RARE (any) per pack | 0.000917 | 0.00116 | +26.53% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| ULTIMATE_RARE (any) per pack | 0.0009 | 0.00116 | +28.88% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) — Riot Games | official | — | 100% | 2 |
| Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) — Cards EV Lab research | community aggregate | — | 60% | 7 |
| Unleashed Ultimate Rare appearance rate (riftbound.gg / TCGOdds) — riftbound.gg | estimate | — | 30% | 1 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.