Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$6.45 |
$8.26 |
$1.68 |
+28.1% |
$45.39 |
$1.17 |
$1.38 |
$3.11 |
$25.52 |
$110.88 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$202.06 |
$198.50 |
$137.61 |
-1.8% |
$213.54 |
$64.41 |
$90.35 |
$208.86 |
$730.3 |
$1274.09 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$2292.44 |
$2382.02 |
$2231.79 |
+3.9% |
$734.66 |
$1477.38 |
$1810.03 |
$2810.16 |
$3791.54 |
$4645.88 |
3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| L |
0.5000 |
12.00 |
144.00 |
100.0% |
| Manga Rare |
0.0008 |
0.02 |
0.23 |
1.9% |
| Special |
0.0110 |
0.27 |
3.18 |
26.5% |
| SR |
0.2292 |
5.50 |
66.02 |
99.8% |
| Treasure Rare |
0.0036 |
0.09 |
1.02 |
8.5% |
| SEC |
0.0194 |
0.46 |
5.57 |
46.4% |
| Alt-Art Leader |
0.0105 |
0.25 |
3.02 |
25.2% |
| Alt-Art Rare |
0.0417 |
1.00 |
12.00 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
0.0126 |
0.30 |
3.62 |
30.2% |
| Alt-Art Secret |
0.0069 |
0.17 |
2.00 |
16.7% |
| Gold DON!! |
0.0056 |
0.13 |
1.61 |
13.4% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| L |
any |
0.5000 |
1 : 2 packs |
Bandai booster structure (12 cards + DON!! topper; leader every other pack) |
| SR |
any |
0.2292 |
1 : 4 packs |
OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Alt-Art Rare |
any |
0.0417 |
1 : 24 packs |
OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| DON!! |
any |
0.0417 |
1 : 24 packs |
Bandai booster structure (12 cards + DON!! topper; leader every other pack) |
| SEC |
any |
0.0195 |
1 : 51 packs |
OP-16 The Time of Battle — documented English 12-box case opening (tcgtalk); OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
any |
0.0125 |
1 : 80 packs |
OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Special |
any |
0.0110 |
1 : 91 packs |
OP-16 The Time of Battle — documented English 12-box case opening (tcgtalk); OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Alt-Art Leader |
any |
0.0104 |
1 : 96 packs |
OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Alt-Art Secret |
any |
0.0069 |
1 : 144 packs |
OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Gold DON!! |
any |
0.0056 |
1 : 179 packs |
OP-16 The Time of Battle — documented English 12-box case opening (tcgtalk); OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
| Treasure Rare |
any |
0.0035 |
1 : 288 packs |
OP-16 The Time of Battle — documented English 12-box case opening (tcgtalk) |
| Manga Rare |
any |
0.0009 |
1 : 1152 packs |
OP-16 English expected case rates (tcgtalk aggregation + retailer guides) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 45 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| DON (any) per pack |
0.041667 |
0.041667 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| L (any) per pack |
0.5 |
0.5 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| DON_GOLD (any) per pack |
0.003472 |
0.00564 |
+62.42% |
±200% |
PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack |
0.017361 |
0.019548 |
+12.6% |
±89.4% |
PASS |
| SP (any) per pack |
0.017361 |
0.011409 |
-34.28% |
±89.4% |
PASS |
| TR (any) per pack |
0.003472 |
0.00331 |
-4.68% |
±200% |
PASS |
| AA_L (any) per pack |
0.010417 |
0.010699 |
+2.71% |
±75% |
PASS |
| AA_R (any) per pack |
0.041667 |
0.041667 |
+0% |
±75% |
PASS |
| AA_SEC (any) per pack |
0.006944 |
0.007439 |
+7.13% |
±75% |
PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack |
0.0125 |
0.012849 |
+2.79% |
±75% |
PASS |
| DON_GOLD (any) per pack |
0.006944 |
0.00564 |
-18.79% |
±75% |
PASS |
| MR (any) per pack |
0.000868 |
0.00076 |
-12.46% |
±75% |
PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack |
0.020833 |
0.019548 |
-6.17% |
±75% |
PASS |
| SP (any) per pack |
0.006944 |
0.011409 |
+64.29% |
±75% |
PASS |
| SR (any) per pack |
0.229167 |
0.229662 |
+0.22% |
±75% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.