EV Statistics: Lorwyn Eclipsed
Magic: The Gathering • Monte Carlo simulation • model v2
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $4.94 | $5.83 | $3.30 | +17.9% | $36.38 | $2.45 | $2.81 | $4.56 | $16.22 | $24.57 | 1,080,000 |
| Box | $122.77 | $174.78 | $158.01 | +42.4% | $199.11 | $118.23 | $139.27 | $181.75 | $231.73 | $300.01 | 36,000 |
| Case | $707.34 | $1048.67 | $978.12 | +48.3% | $485.00 | $854.53 | $921.3 | $1043.77 | $1193.32 | $4741.47 | 6,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic Rare | 0.1747 | 5.24 | 31.45 | NaN% |
| Rare | 1.0421 | 31.26 | 187.58 | NaN% |
| Variant Mythic | 0.0194 | 0.58 | 3.50 | NaN% |
| Variant Rare | 0.1160 | 3.48 | 20.88 | NaN% |
| CHASE_M | 0.0003 | 0.01 | 0.06 | NaN% |
| CHASE_R | 0.0017 | 0.05 | 0.30 | NaN% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | normal | 7.0000 | 7.00 per pack | WotC Play Booster anatomy (14 cards: 6C+1C/List, 3U, 2 wildcards, 1 R/M, 1 land, 1 token) |
| Uncommon | normal | 3.0000 | 3.00 per pack | WotC Play Booster anatomy (14 cards: 6C+1C/List, 3U, 2 wildcards, 1 R/M, 1 land, 1 token) |
| Common | wild | 0.5880 | 1 : 2 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Uncommon | wild | 0.2350 | 1 : 4 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Basic Land | foil | 0.2000 | 1 : 5 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Rare | wild | 0.1510 | 1 : 7 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Mythic Rare | rmshare | 0.1429 | 1 : 7 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| VAR | r | 0.1000 | 1 : 10 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| VAR | m | 0.1000 | 1 : 10 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| CHASE | collector | 0.0500 | 1 : 20 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Mythic Rare | wild | 0.0260 | 1 : 38 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| VAR | cu | 0.0200 | 1 : 50 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| CHASE | play | 0.0020 | 1 : 500 packs | Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 33 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,000 packs, 20,000 collectorPacks
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C (normal) | 7 | 7 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| U (normal) | 3 | 3 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| C (wild) | 0.588 | 0.58816 | +0.03% | ±75% | PASS |
| L (foil) | 0.2 | 0.19894 | -0.53% | ±75% | PASS |
| M (rmshare) | 0.142857 | 0.14183 | -0.72% | ±75% | PASS |
| M (wild) | 0.026 | 0.025945 | -0.21% | ±75% | PASS |
| R (wild) | 0.151 | 0.15211 | +0.74% | ±75% | PASS |
| U (wild) | 0.235 | 0.233785 | -0.52% | ±75% | PASS |
| VAR (cu) | 0.02 | 0.020488 | +2.44% | ±75% | PASS |
| VAR (m) | 0.1 | 0.099203 | -0.8% | ±75% | PASS |
| VAR (r) | 0.1 | 0.100749 | +0.75% | ±75% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WotC Play Booster anatomy (14 cards: 6C+1C/List, 3U, 2 wildcards, 1 R/M, 1 land, 1 token) — Wizards of the Coast | official | — | 100% | 2 |
| Modern Collector Booster template (WotC collecting articles) — Wizards of the Coast | official | — | 50% | 0 |
| Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) — WotC collecting articles / community aggregate | community aggregate | — | 50% | 11 |
| Play Booster box statistics corroboration (Draftsim / community, 2025-2026 sets) — Draftsim / community aggregate | community aggregate | — | 45% | 1 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.