Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$12.25 |
$8.90 |
$3.32 |
-27.4% |
$80.64 |
$1.59 |
$2.18 |
$5.41 |
$10.65 |
$130.47 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$192.34 |
$213.58 |
$106.61 |
+11.0% |
$396.15 |
$81.11 |
$94.27 |
$141.04 |
$524.38 |
$3058.32 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$796.75 |
$854.31 |
$582.56 |
+7.2% |
$788.88 |
$376.3 |
$426.87 |
$845.81 |
$2798.8 |
$3885.92 |
10,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| Legendary |
0.2808 |
6.74 |
26.96 |
99.9% |
| Rare |
1.4813 |
35.55 |
142.20 |
100.0% |
| Super Rare |
0.5097 |
12.23 |
48.94 |
100.0% |
| Epic |
0.0947 |
2.27 |
9.09 |
90.7% |
| Iconic |
0.0010 |
0.02 |
0.09 |
2.3% |
| Enchanted |
0.0105 |
0.25 |
1.01 |
22.4% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| Common |
normal |
6.0000 |
6.00 per pack |
Ravensburger booster anatomy (12 cards: 6C / 3UC / 2 rare-or-higher / 1 foil) |
| Uncommon |
normal |
3.0000 |
3.00 per pack |
Ravensburger booster anatomy (12 cards: 6C / 3UC / 2 rare-or-higher / 1 foil) |
| Rare |
normal |
1.3097 |
1.31 per pack |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Super Rare |
normal |
0.4422 |
1 : 2 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Legendary |
normal |
0.2481 |
1 : 4 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Common |
foil |
0.4149 |
1 : 2 packs |
Foil-slot C/UC split estimate (community consensus, sets 1-12) |
| Uncommon |
foil |
0.2074 |
1 : 5 packs |
Foil-slot C/UC split estimate (community consensus, sets 1-12) |
| Rare |
foil |
0.1723 |
1 : 6 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Epic |
foil |
0.0947 |
1 : 11 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Super Rare |
foil |
0.0663 |
1 : 15 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Legendary |
foil |
0.0331 |
1 : 30 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Enchanted |
foil |
0.0104 |
1 : 96 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs); Lorcana Pull Rates Explained (The Gamers Lodge); The Ultimate Disney Lorcana Pull Rate Guide: All Sets Compared (Lorcana Collectors) |
| Iconic |
foil |
0.0009 |
1 : 1056 packs |
Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 45 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,000 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| C (normal) per pack |
6 |
6 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack |
3 |
3 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ENCHANTED (foil) per pack |
0.010417 |
0.01083 |
+3.97% |
±10% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.094697 |
0.09384 |
-0.9% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ICONIC (foil) per pack |
0.000947 |
0.00089 |
-6.02% |
±35% |
PASS |
| L (normal) per pack |
0.248106 |
0.25086 |
+1.11% |
±10% |
PASS |
| L (foil) per pack |
0.0331 |
0.03297 |
-0.39% |
±10% |
PASS |
| R (foil) per pack |
0.1723 |
0.1732 |
+0.52% |
±10% |
PASS |
| R (normal) per pack |
1.309659 |
1.31031 |
+0.05% |
±10% |
PASS |
| SR (normal) per pack |
0.442235 |
0.43883 |
-0.77% |
±10% |
PASS |
| SR (foil) per pack |
0.0663 |
0.06506 |
-1.87% |
±10% |
PASS |
| C (foil) per pack |
0.4149 |
0.41409 |
-0.2% |
±10% |
PASS |
| UC (foil) per pack |
0.2074 |
0.20912 |
+0.83% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ENCHANTED (foil) per pack |
0.010417 |
0.01083 |
+3.97% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ENCHANTED (foil) per pack |
0.010417 |
0.01083 |
+3.97% |
±10% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.