EV Statistics: Attack of the Vine!
Disney Lorcana • Monte Carlo simulation • model v2
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $12.25 | $8.90 | $3.32 | -27.4% | $80.64 | $1.59 | $2.18 | $5.41 | $10.65 | $130.47 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $192.34 | $213.58 | $106.61 | +11.0% | $396.15 | $81.11 | $94.27 | $141.04 | $524.38 | $3058.32 | 42,000 |
| Case | $796.75 | $854.31 | $582.56 | +7.2% | $788.88 | $376.3 | $426.87 | $845.81 | $2798.8 | $3885.92 | 10,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0.2808 | 6.74 | 26.96 | 99.9% |
| Rare | 1.4813 | 35.55 | 142.20 | 100.0% |
| Super Rare | 0.5097 | 12.23 | 48.94 | 100.0% |
| Epic | 0.0947 | 2.27 | 9.09 | 90.7% |
| 0.0010 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 2.3% | |
| Enchanted | 0.0105 | 0.25 | 1.01 | 22.4% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | normal | 6.0000 | 6.00 per pack | Ravensburger booster anatomy (12 cards: 6C / 3UC / 2 rare-or-higher / 1 foil) |
| Uncommon | normal | 3.0000 | 3.00 per pack | Ravensburger booster anatomy (12 cards: 6C / 3UC / 2 rare-or-higher / 1 foil) |
| Rare | normal | 1.3097 | 1.31 per pack | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Super Rare | normal | 0.4422 | 1 : 2 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Legendary | normal | 0.2481 | 1 : 4 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Common | foil | 0.4149 | 1 : 2 packs | Foil-slot C/UC split estimate (community consensus, sets 1-12) |
| Uncommon | foil | 0.2074 | 1 : 5 packs | Foil-slot C/UC split estimate (community consensus, sets 1-12) |
| Rare | foil | 0.1723 | 1 : 6 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Epic | foil | 0.0947 | 1 : 11 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Super Rare | foil | 0.0663 | 1 : 15 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Legendary | foil | 0.0331 | 1 : 30 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
| Enchanted | foil | 0.0104 | 1 : 96 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs); Lorcana Pull Rates Explained (The Gamers Lodge); The Ultimate Disney Lorcana Pull Rate Guide: All Sets Compared (Lorcana Collectors) |
| foil | 0.0009 | 1 : 1056 packs | Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 45 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,000 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C (normal) per pack | 6 | 6 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack | 3 | 3 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| ENCHANTED (foil) per pack | 0.010417 | 0.01083 | +3.97% | ±10% | PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack | 0.094697 | 0.09384 | -0.9% | ±10% | PASS |
| ICONIC (foil) per pack | 0.000947 | 0.00089 | -6.02% | ±35% | PASS |
| L (normal) per pack | 0.248106 | 0.25086 | +1.11% | ±10% | PASS |
| L (foil) per pack | 0.0331 | 0.03297 | -0.39% | ±10% | PASS |
| R (foil) per pack | 0.1723 | 0.1732 | +0.52% | ±10% | PASS |
| R (normal) per pack | 1.309659 | 1.31031 | +0.05% | ±10% | PASS |
| SR (normal) per pack | 0.442235 | 0.43883 | -0.77% | ±10% | PASS |
| SR (foil) per pack | 0.0663 | 0.06506 | -1.87% | ±10% | PASS |
| C (foil) per pack | 0.4149 | 0.41409 | -0.2% | ±10% | PASS |
| UC (foil) per pack | 0.2074 | 0.20912 | +0.83% | ±10% | PASS |
| ENCHANTED (foil) per pack | 0.010417 | 0.01083 | +3.97% | ±10% | PASS |
| ENCHANTED (foil) per pack | 0.010417 | 0.01083 | +3.97% | ±10% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravensburger booster anatomy (12 cards: 6C / 3UC / 2 rare-or-higher / 1 foil) — Ravensburger | official | — | 100% | 2 |
| Attack of the Vine — 44 booster box opening dataset (1,056 packs) — rachelcarterquests / The Deck Box | community spreadsheet | 1,056 packs / 44 boxes | 95% | 9 |
| Foil-slot C/UC split estimate (community consensus, sets 1-12) — Cards EV Lab research | estimate | — | 50% | 2 |
| The Ultimate Disney Lorcana Pull Rate Guide: All Sets Compared (Lorcana Collectors) — lorcanacollectors.com | estimate | — | 30% | 1 |
| Lorcana Pull Rates Explained (The Gamers Lodge) — The Gamers Lodge | estimate | — | 30% | 1 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.