Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$12.54 |
$12.94 |
$5.00 |
+3.2% |
$66.23 |
$2.3 |
$3.17 |
$9.09 |
$37.05 |
$92.85 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$237.36 |
$310.59 |
$247.51 |
+30.9% |
$312.13 |
$151.81 |
$199.55 |
$320.84 |
$566.81 |
$1574.64 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$1600.04 |
$1863.57 |
$1641.08 |
+16.5% |
$766.08 |
$1267.55 |
$1460.78 |
$1928.86 |
$3150.57 |
$5307.15 |
7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| R |
2.6046 |
62.51 |
375.07 |
100.0% |
| Epic |
0.2800 |
6.72 |
40.32 |
100.0% |
| Overnumber |
0.0134 |
0.32 |
1.92 |
32.1% |
| Alt-Art Rune |
0.0310 |
0.74 |
4.47 |
74.5% |
| Crystal Rose |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Ultimate Rare |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Signature Overnumber |
0.0013 |
0.03 |
0.19 |
3.2% |
| Alt-Art Champion |
0.0696 |
1.67 |
10.03 |
100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| C |
normal |
7.0000 |
7.00 per pack |
Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| UC |
normal |
3.0000 |
3.00 per pack |
Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| Epic |
foil |
0.2500 |
1 : 4 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
| Rune |
foil |
0.1000 |
1 : 10 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Champion |
any |
0.0694 |
1 : 14 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
| Alt-Art Rune |
any |
0.0313 |
1 : 32 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Overnumber |
any |
0.0138 |
1 : 72 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
| Signature Overnumber |
any |
0.0014 |
1 : 723 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 36 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| C (normal) per pack |
7 |
7 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack |
3 |
3 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.0625 |
0.069634 |
+11.42% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_RUNE (any) per pack |
0.03125 |
0.031267 |
+0.06% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.25 |
0.279618 |
+11.85% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.01375 |
0.012999 |
-5.46% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack |
0.1 |
0.098232 |
-1.77% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.001375 |
0.00131 |
-4.73% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.083333 |
0.069634 |
-16.44% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.25 |
0.279618 |
+11.85% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.013889 |
0.012999 |
-6.41% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.0014 |
0.00131 |
-6.44% |
±104.99999999999999% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.