EV Statistics: Origins
Riftbound: League of Legends TCG • Monte Carlo simulation • model v1
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $9.54 | $13.81 | $5.42 | +44.7% | $55.81 | $2.22 | $3.22 | $12.47 | $40.5 | $115.11 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $260.39 | $331.37 | $270.36 | +27.3% | $258.70 | $171.15 | $220.2 | $355.64 | $660.88 | $1291.17 | 42,000 |
| Case | $1847.76 | $1988.19 | $1826.31 | +7.6% | $637.51 | $1394.12 | $1613.53 | $2138.45 | $3105.87 | $4585.42 | 7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 2.6046 | 62.51 | 375.07 | 100.0% |
| Epic | 0.2800 | 6.72 | 40.32 | 100.0% |
| Overnumber | 0.0134 | 0.32 | 1.92 | 32.1% |
| Alt-Art Rune | 0.0310 | 0.74 | 4.47 | 74.5% |
| Ultimate Rare | 0.0000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| Signature Overnumber | 0.0013 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 3.2% |
| Alt-Art Champion | 0.0696 | 1.67 | 10.03 | 100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | normal | 7.0000 | 7.00 per pack | Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| UC | normal | 3.0000 | 3.00 per pack | Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| Epic | foil | 0.2500 | 1 : 4 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
| Rune | foil | 0.1000 | 1 : 10 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Champion | any | 0.0694 | 1 : 14 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
| Alt-Art Rune | any | 0.0313 | 1 : 32 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Overnumber | any | 0.0138 | 1 : 72 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
| Signature Overnumber | any | 0.0014 | 1 : 723 packs | Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 36 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C (normal) per pack | 7 | 7 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack | 3 | 3 | +0% | ±10% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack | 0.0625 | 0.069634 | +11.42% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_RUNE (any) per pack | 0.03125 | 0.031267 | +0.06% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack | 0.25 | 0.279618 | +11.85% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.01375 | 0.012999 | -5.46% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack | 0.1 | 0.098232 | -1.77% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.001375 | 0.00131 | -4.73% | ±60.00000000000001% | PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack | 0.083333 | 0.069634 | -16.44% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack | 0.25 | 0.279618 | +11.85% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.013889 | 0.012999 | -6.41% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack | 0.0014 | 0.00131 | -6.44% | ±104.99999999999999% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) — Riot Games | official | — | 100% | 2 |
| Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) — Cards EV Lab research | community aggregate | — | 60% | 6 |
| Riftbound TCG: Pull Rates and Set Overview — Origins and Spiritforged (Harlequins Games) — Harlequins Games | estimate | — | 30% | 4 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.