Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$11.99 |
$9.72 |
$2.04 |
-19.0% |
$67.15 |
$1.2 |
$1.48 |
$11.06 |
$27.62 |
$88.44 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$298.24 |
$235.45 |
$194.34 |
-21.1% |
$326.68 |
$128.97 |
$161.08 |
$240.51 |
$324.23 |
$1172 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$3590.76 |
$2825.34 |
$2482.47 |
-21.3% |
$1143.21 |
$2148.46 |
$2328.44 |
$2716.8 |
$5391.15 |
$7997.48 |
3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| L |
0.3333 |
8.00 |
95.98 |
100.0% |
| Manga Rare |
0.0004 |
0.01 |
0.13 |
1.0% |
| SR |
0.4999 |
12.00 |
143.97 |
100.0% |
| SEC |
0.1333 |
3.20 |
38.39 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Leader |
0.0041 |
0.10 |
1.18 |
9.9% |
| Alt-Art Rare |
0.1199 |
2.88 |
34.54 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
0.0598 |
1.44 |
17.22 |
100.0% |
| Alt-Art Secret |
0.0200 |
0.48 |
5.76 |
48.0% |
| Gold DON!! |
0.0069 |
0.16 |
1.97 |
16.4% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| SR |
any |
0.5000 |
1 : 2 packs |
EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| L |
any |
0.3333 |
1 : 3 packs |
EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| SEC |
any |
0.1333 |
1 : 8 packs |
EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Alt-Art Rare |
any |
0.1200 |
1 : 8 packs |
EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare |
any |
0.0600 |
1 : 17 packs |
EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Alt-Art Secret |
any |
0.0200 |
1 : 50 packs |
EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Gold DON!! |
any |
0.0069 |
1 : 144 packs |
EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
| Alt-Art Leader |
any |
0.0042 |
1 : 240 packs |
EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
| Manga Rare |
any |
0.0004 |
1 : 2400 packs |
EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
| GOD_PACK |
any |
0.0002 |
1 : 4320 packs |
EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 30 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| AA_R (any) per pack |
0.12 |
0.11969 |
-0.26% |
±75% |
PASS |
| AA_SEC (any) per pack |
0.02 |
0.020298 |
+1.49% |
±75% |
PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack |
0.06 |
0.060185 |
+0.31% |
±75% |
PASS |
| L (any) per pack |
0.333333 |
0.333243 |
-0.03% |
±75% |
PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack |
0.133333 |
0.133559 |
+0.17% |
±75% |
PASS |
| SR (any) per pack |
0.5 |
0.50028 |
+0.06% |
±75% |
PASS |
| AA_L (any) per pack |
0.004167 |
0.00381 |
-8.57% |
±90% |
PASS |
| DON_GOLD (any) per pack |
0.006944 |
0.007029 |
+1.22% |
±90% |
PASS |
| GOD_PACK (any) per pack |
0.000231 |
0.00034 |
+46.87% |
±90% |
PASS |
| MR (any) per pack |
0.000417 |
0.00038 |
-8.81% |
±90% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.