EV Statistics: Extra Booster: One Piece Heroines Edition
One Piece Card Game • Monte Carlo simulation • model v3
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $11.99 | $9.72 | $2.04 | -19.0% | $67.15 | $1.2 | $1.48 | $11.06 | $27.62 | $88.44 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $298.24 | $235.45 | $194.34 | -21.1% | $326.68 | $128.97 | $161.08 | $240.51 | $324.23 | $1172 | 42,000 |
| Case | $3590.76 | $2825.34 | $2482.47 | -21.3% | $1143.21 | $2148.46 | $2328.44 | $2716.8 | $5391.15 | $7997.48 | 3,500 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 0.3333 | 8.00 | 95.98 | 100.0% |
| Manga Rare | 0.0004 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 1.0% |
| SR | 0.4999 | 12.00 | 143.97 | 100.0% |
| SEC | 0.1333 | 3.20 | 38.39 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Leader | 0.0041 | 0.10 | 1.18 | 9.9% |
| Alt-Art Rare | 0.1199 | 2.88 | 34.54 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Super Rare | 0.0598 | 1.44 | 17.22 | 100.0% |
| Alt-Art Secret | 0.0200 | 0.48 | 5.76 | 48.0% |
| Gold DON!! | 0.0069 | 0.16 | 1.97 | 16.4% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SR | any | 0.5000 | 1 : 2 packs | EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| L | any | 0.3333 | 1 : 3 packs | EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| SEC | any | 0.1333 | 1 : 8 packs | EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Alt-Art Rare | any | 0.1200 | 1 : 8 packs | EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Alt-Art Super Rare | any | 0.0600 | 1 : 17 packs | EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Alt-Art Secret | any | 0.0200 | 1 : 50 packs | EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) |
| Gold DON!! | any | 0.0069 | 1 : 144 packs | EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
| Alt-Art Leader | any | 0.0042 | 1 : 240 packs | EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
| Manga Rare | any | 0.0004 | 1 : 2400 packs | EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
| GOD_PACK | any | 0.0002 | 1 : 4320 packs | EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 30 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA_R (any) per pack | 0.12 | 0.11969 | -0.26% | ±75% | PASS |
| AA_SEC (any) per pack | 0.02 | 0.020298 | +1.49% | ±75% | PASS |
| AA_SR (any) per pack | 0.06 | 0.060185 | +0.31% | ±75% | PASS |
| L (any) per pack | 0.333333 | 0.333243 | -0.03% | ±75% | PASS |
| SEC (any) per pack | 0.133333 | 0.133559 | +0.17% | ±75% | PASS |
| SR (any) per pack | 0.5 | 0.50028 | +0.06% | ±75% | PASS |
| AA_L (any) per pack | 0.004167 | 0.00381 | -8.57% | ±90% | PASS |
| DON_GOLD (any) per pack | 0.006944 | 0.007029 | +1.22% | ±90% | PASS |
| GOD_PACK (any) per pack | 0.000231 | 0.00034 | +46.87% | ±90% | PASS |
| MR (any) per pack | 0.000417 | 0.00038 | -8.81% | ±90% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandai Extra Booster structure (EN: 12-card packs, 24-pack boxes, no leader cadence) — Bandai | official | — | 100% | 0 |
| EB-03 Heroines Edition JP-release community rates, per-pack converted (onepieceboosters review) — onepieceboosters.com / JP community data | community aggregate | — | 50% | 6 |
| EB-03 God Pack + chase rates (Samurai Sword guide, EN 24-pack boxes) — samuraiswordtokyo | estimate | — | 40% | 4 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.