Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$4.96 |
$6.53 |
$3.33 |
+31.7% |
$24.32 |
$2.37 |
$2.72 |
$4.74 |
$11.42 |
$118.03 |
1,080,000 |
| Box |
$119.87 |
$195.93 |
$146.78 |
+63.4% |
$132.48 |
$111.63 |
$127.86 |
$243.01 |
$389.5 |
$560.86 |
36,000 |
| Case |
$633.53 |
$1175.56 |
$1119.63 |
+85.6% |
$322.34 |
$812.66 |
$978.71 |
$1295.95 |
$1640.87 |
$2670.55 |
6,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| Mythic Rare |
0.1747 |
5.24 |
31.45 |
NaN% |
| Rare |
1.0421 |
31.26 |
187.58 |
NaN% |
| Variant Mythic |
0.0194 |
0.58 |
3.50 |
NaN% |
| Variant Rare |
0.1160 |
3.48 |
20.88 |
NaN% |
| CHASE_M |
0.0003 |
0.01 |
0.06 |
NaN% |
| CHASE_R |
0.0017 |
0.05 |
0.30 |
NaN% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| Common |
normal |
7.0000 |
7.00 per pack |
WotC Play Booster anatomy (14 cards: 6C+1C/List, 3U, 2 wildcards, 1 R/M, 1 land, 1 token) |
| Uncommon |
normal |
3.0000 |
3.00 per pack |
WotC Play Booster anatomy (14 cards: 6C+1C/List, 3U, 2 wildcards, 1 R/M, 1 land, 1 token) |
| Common |
wild |
0.5880 |
1 : 2 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Uncommon |
wild |
0.2350 |
1 : 4 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Basic Land |
foil |
0.2000 |
1 : 5 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Rare |
wild |
0.1510 |
1 : 7 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Mythic Rare |
rmshare |
0.1429 |
1 : 7 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| VAR |
r |
0.1000 |
1 : 10 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| VAR |
m |
0.1000 |
1 : 10 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| CHASE |
collector |
0.0500 |
1 : 20 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| Mythic Rare |
wild |
0.0260 |
1 : 38 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| VAR |
cu |
0.0200 |
1 : 50 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
| CHASE |
play |
0.0020 |
1 : 500 packs |
Modern Play Booster sheet odds (WotC statements + community consensus) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 33 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,000 packs, 20,000 collectorPacks
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| C (normal) |
7 |
7 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| U (normal) |
3 |
3 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| C (wild) |
0.588 |
0.58816 |
+0.03% |
±75% |
PASS |
| L (foil) |
0.2 |
0.19894 |
-0.53% |
±75% |
PASS |
| M (rmshare) |
0.142857 |
0.14183 |
-0.72% |
±75% |
PASS |
| M (wild) |
0.026 |
0.025945 |
-0.21% |
±75% |
PASS |
| R (wild) |
0.151 |
0.15211 |
+0.74% |
±75% |
PASS |
| U (wild) |
0.235 |
0.233785 |
-0.52% |
±75% |
PASS |
| VAR (cu) |
0.02 |
0.020488 |
+2.44% |
±75% |
PASS |
| VAR (m) |
0.1 |
0.099203 |
-0.8% |
±75% |
PASS |
| VAR (r) |
0.1 |
0.100749 |
+0.75% |
±75% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.