EV Statistics: Dawn of Palpagos

Palworld OFFICIAL CARD GAME • Monte Carlo simulation • model v4

Expected Value by Product

ProductPriceMean EVMedian EVROI Std DevP5P25P75P95P99Simulated
Pack $3.99 $7.99 $4.70 +100.2% $14.13 $1.9 $2.57 $7.11 $30.96 $48.37 1,008,000
Box $47.88 $95.87 $82.23 +100.2% $45.04 $59.51 $71.76 $101.22 $189.37 $286.06 84,000
Case $574.56 $1150.44 $1136.76 +100.2% $113.94 $990.71 $1064.82 $1223.63 $1358.13 $1462.57 7,000

Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.

Hit Odds (per Booster Box)

RarityExpected / PackExpected / BoxExpected / CaseP(≥1 per box)
Double Rare 0.3358 4.03 48.36 100.0%
Special 0.0207 0.25 2.98 22.6%
Super Rare 0.1791 2.15 25.79 100.0%
Over Super Rare 0.0932 1.12 13.42 100.0%
Super Special Parallel 0.0064 0.08 0.92 7.4%

Active Pull-Rate Model

RarityFinishRate / PackOddsSources
Common normal 3.0069 3.01 per pack BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet)
Uncommon normal 2.3681 2.37 per pack BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet)
Rare hit 0.9943 1 : 1 packs BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01)
Double Rare hit 0.3357 1 : 3 packs BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01)
Super Rare foil 0.1792 1 : 6 packs BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01)
Over Super Rare foil 0.0932 1 : 11 packs BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01)
Special foil 0.0207 1 : 48 packs BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01)
Super Special Parallel foil 0.0063 1 : 158 packs BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01)

Validation Report

Latest run: PASSED • 72 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,000 packs

MetricObservedSimulatedDeltaToleranceResult
C (normal) per pack 3.006944 3 -0.23% ±22.5% PASS
OSR (foil) per pack 0.090278 0.09299 +3% ±55.5% PASS
R (hit) per pack 1 1 +0% ±22.5% PASS
RR (hit) per pack 0.333333 0.33679 +1.04% ±28.9% PASS
SP (foil) per pack 0.020833 0.02103 +0.94% ±115.5% PASS
SR (foil) per pack 0.180556 0.17832 -1.24% ±39.2% PASS
SSP (foil) per pack 0 0.00593 +0% ±35% PASS
U (normal) per pack 2.368056 2.36494 -0.13% ±22.5% PASS
OSR (foil) per pack 0.090278 0.09299 +3% ±55.5% PASS
RR (hit) per pack 0.347222 0.33679 -3% ±30% PASS
SP (foil) per pack 0.013889 0.02103 +51.42% ±141.4% PASS
SR (foil) per pack 0.173611 0.17832 +2.71% ±40% PASS
SSP (foil) per pack 0.006944 0.00593 -14.61% ±200% PASS
OSR (foil) per pack 0.083333 0.09299 +11.59% ±100% PASS
RR (hit) per pack 0.333333 0.33679 +1.04% ±75% PASS
SP (foil) per pack 0.041667 0.02103 -49.53% ±141.4% PASS
SR (foil) per pack 0.1875 0.17832 -4.9% ±75% PASS
SSP (foil) per pack 0.020833 0.00593 -71.54% ±200% PASS
OSR (foil) per pack 0.1 0.09299 -7.01% ±105% PASS
R (hit) per pack 0.99 1 +1.01% ±105% PASS
RR (hit) per pack 0.33 0.33679 +2.06% ±105% PASS
SP (foil) per pack 0.02 0.02103 +5.15% ±105% PASS
SR (foil) per pack 0.18 0.17832 -0.93% ±105% PASS
SSP (foil) per pack 0.007 0.00593 -15.29% ±105% PASS

Research Sources

SourceTypeSampleConfidenceData Points
Palworld OCG official product spec (BP-01 Dawn of Palpagos) — Bushiroad official — 100% 0
BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet) — Community case spreadsheet (per-box tally, all eight rarities) community 144 packs / 12 boxes 85% 8
BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG) — u/iamstephanie_ reddit 144 packs / 12 boxes 80% 5
BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG) — u/TheRealAmbience reddit 48 packs / 4 boxes 50% 5
BP-01 collation and god-pack field reports (r/PalworldTCG) — r/PalworldTCG community reddit — 50% 0
palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) — Palworld TCG Play Hub aggregator — 30% 6

Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.

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