EV Statistics: Dawn of Palpagos
Palworld OFFICIAL CARD GAME • Monte Carlo simulation • model v4
Released July 30, 2026. Launch-week singles prices are still settling, so ROI here runs high and will drift down over the coming weeks.
Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI | Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack | $3.99 | $7.99 | $4.70 | +100.2% | $14.13 | $1.9 | $2.57 | $7.11 | $30.96 | $48.37 | 1,008,000 |
| Box | $47.88 | $95.87 | $82.23 | +100.2% | $45.04 | $59.51 | $71.76 | $101.22 | $189.37 | $286.06 | 84,000 |
| Case | $574.56 | $1150.44 | $1136.76 | +100.2% | $113.94 | $990.71 | $1064.82 | $1223.63 | $1358.13 | $1462.57 | 7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns. Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 0.3358 | 4.03 | 48.36 | 100.0% |
| Special | 0.0207 | 0.25 | 2.98 | 22.6% |
| Super Rare | 0.1791 | 2.15 | 25.79 | 100.0% |
| Over Super Rare | 0.0932 | 1.12 | 13.42 | 100.0% |
| Super Special Parallel | 0.0064 | 0.08 | 0.92 | 7.4% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | normal | 3.0069 | 3.01 per pack | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet) |
| Uncommon | normal | 2.3681 | 2.37 per pack | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet) |
| Rare | hit | 0.9943 | 1 : 1 packs | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) |
| Double Rare | hit | 0.3357 | 1 : 3 packs | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) |
| Super Rare | foil | 0.1792 | 1 : 6 packs | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) |
| Over Super Rare | foil | 0.0932 | 1 : 11 packs | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) |
| Special | foil | 0.0207 | 1 : 48 packs | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) |
| Super Special Parallel | foil | 0.0063 | 1 : 158 packs | BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet); BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG); BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG); palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED • 72 metrics checked against research data • 0 outside tolerance • 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,000 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C (normal) per pack | 3.006944 | 3 | -0.23% | ±22.5% | PASS |
| OSR (foil) per pack | 0.090278 | 0.09299 | +3% | ±55.5% | PASS |
| R (hit) per pack | 1 | 1 | +0% | ±22.5% | PASS |
| RR (hit) per pack | 0.333333 | 0.33679 | +1.04% | ±28.9% | PASS |
| SP (foil) per pack | 0.020833 | 0.02103 | +0.94% | ±115.5% | PASS |
| SR (foil) per pack | 0.180556 | 0.17832 | -1.24% | ±39.2% | PASS |
| SSP (foil) per pack | 0 | 0.00593 | +0% | ±35% | PASS |
| U (normal) per pack | 2.368056 | 2.36494 | -0.13% | ±22.5% | PASS |
| OSR (foil) per pack | 0.090278 | 0.09299 | +3% | ±55.5% | PASS |
| RR (hit) per pack | 0.347222 | 0.33679 | -3% | ±30% | PASS |
| SP (foil) per pack | 0.013889 | 0.02103 | +51.42% | ±141.4% | PASS |
| SR (foil) per pack | 0.173611 | 0.17832 | +2.71% | ±40% | PASS |
| SSP (foil) per pack | 0.006944 | 0.00593 | -14.61% | ±200% | PASS |
| OSR (foil) per pack | 0.083333 | 0.09299 | +11.59% | ±100% | PASS |
| RR (hit) per pack | 0.333333 | 0.33679 | +1.04% | ±75% | PASS |
| SP (foil) per pack | 0.041667 | 0.02103 | -49.53% | ±141.4% | PASS |
| SR (foil) per pack | 0.1875 | 0.17832 | -4.9% | ±75% | PASS |
| SSP (foil) per pack | 0.020833 | 0.00593 | -71.54% | ±200% | PASS |
| OSR (foil) per pack | 0.1 | 0.09299 | -7.01% | ±105% | PASS |
| R (hit) per pack | 0.99 | 1 | +1.01% | ±105% | PASS |
| RR (hit) per pack | 0.33 | 0.33679 | +2.06% | ±105% | PASS |
| SP (foil) per pack | 0.02 | 0.02103 | +5.15% | ±105% | PASS |
| SR (foil) per pack | 0.18 | 0.17832 | -0.93% | ±105% | PASS |
| SSP (foil) per pack | 0.007 | 0.00593 | -15.29% | ±105% | PASS |
Research Sources
| Source | Type | Sample | Confidence | Data Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palworld OCG official product spec (BP-01 Dawn of Palpagos) — Bushiroad | official | — | 100% | 0 |
| BP-01 full case tally, 12 boxes / 144 packs (per-box spreadsheet) — Community case spreadsheet (per-box tally, all eight rarities) | community | 144 packs / 12 boxes | 85% | 8 |
| BP-01 full case pull rate, 12 boxes / 144 packs (r/PalworldTCG) — u/iamstephanie_ | 144 packs / 12 boxes | 80% | 5 | |
| BP-01 4-box opening from a master case, 48 packs (r/PalworldTCG) — u/TheRealAmbience | 48 packs / 4 boxes | 50% | 5 | |
| BP-01 collation and god-pack field reports (r/PalworldTCG) — r/PalworldTCG community | — | 50% | 0 | |
| palworldtcg.gg community pull tracker (BP-01) — Palworld TCG Play Hub | aggregator | — | 30% | 6 |
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence, merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing the results back against the research data.