Expected Value by Product
| Product | Price | Mean EV | Median EV | ROI |
Std Dev | P5 | P25 | P75 | P95 | P99 | Simulated |
| Pack |
$10.24 |
$7.42 |
$2.60 |
-27.6% |
$49.81 |
$1.54 |
$1.88 |
$5.04 |
$17.6 |
$68.44 |
1,008,000 |
| Box |
$188.92 |
$178.02 |
$125.74 |
-5.8% |
$234.55 |
$79.42 |
$99.92 |
$175.4 |
$475.31 |
$1001.01 |
42,000 |
| Case |
$1235.17 |
$1068.15 |
$886.21 |
-13.5% |
$578.25 |
$649.12 |
$764.49 |
$1165.25 |
$2034.31 |
$4112.37 |
7,000 |
Mean EV is skewed upward by ultra-rare chase cards; the median tells you what a typical rip returns.
Percentiles show the spread: P5 is a bad rip, P95 is a great one.
Hit Odds (per Booster Box)
| Rarity | Expected / Pack | Expected / Box | Expected / Case | P(≥1 per box) |
|---|
| R |
2.6062 |
62.55 |
375.30 |
100.0% |
| Epic |
0.2802 |
6.73 |
40.35 |
100.0% |
| Overnumber |
0.0140 |
0.34 |
2.01 |
33.5% |
| Alt-Art Rune |
0.0313 |
0.75 |
4.51 |
75.2% |
| Crystal Rose |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Ultimate Rare |
0.0000 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
| Signature Overnumber |
0.0014 |
0.03 |
0.19 |
3.2% |
| Alt-Art Champion |
0.0669 |
1.61 |
9.63 |
100.0% |
Active Pull-Rate Model
| Rarity | Finish | Rate / Pack | Odds | Sources |
|---|
| C |
normal |
7.0000 |
7.00 per pack |
Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| UC |
normal |
3.0000 |
3.00 per pack |
Riot official pack anatomy (14 cards: 7C / 3UC / 2 foil R+ / 1 rare / 1 token) |
| Epic |
foil |
0.2500 |
1 : 4 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Spiritforged pull rates — 72-pack community aggregation (TCGOdds) |
| Rune |
foil |
0.1000 |
1 : 10 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Alt-Art Champion |
any |
0.0670 |
1 : 15 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Spiritforged pull rates — 72-pack community aggregation (TCGOdds) |
| Alt-Art Rune |
any |
0.0313 |
1 : 32 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
| Overnumber |
any |
0.0146 |
1 : 69 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates); Spiritforged pull rates — 72-pack community aggregation (TCGOdds) |
| Signature Overnumber |
any |
0.0014 |
1 : 727 packs |
Launch-window community calibration (site engine v1 rates) |
Validation Report
Latest run: PASSED
• 33 metrics checked against research data
• 0 outside tolerance
• 10,000 boxes, 1,000 cases, 100,008 packs
| Metric | Observed | Simulated | Delta | Tolerance | Result |
|---|
| C (normal) per pack |
7 |
7 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| UC (normal) per pack |
3 |
3 |
+0% |
±10% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.066667 |
0.066745 |
+0.12% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_RUNE (any) per pack |
0.03125 |
0.031737 |
+1.56% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.25 |
0.279698 |
+11.88% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.0125 |
0.013709 |
+9.67% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| RUNE (foil) per pack |
0.1 |
0.098222 |
-1.78% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| SIG_OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.001375 |
0.00131 |
-4.73% |
±60.00000000000001% |
PASS |
| ALT_ART_CHAMPION (any) per pack |
0.069444 |
0.066745 |
-3.89% |
±89.44271909999159% |
PASS |
| EPIC (foil) per pack |
0.25 |
0.279698 |
+11.88% |
±75% |
PASS |
| OVERNUMBER (any) per pack |
0.027778 |
0.013709 |
-50.65% |
±141.42135623730948% |
PASS |
Research Sources
Pull rates are never hardcoded: every observation is stored with its source and confidence,
merged into a weighted model, then verified by simulating 100,000+ packs and comparing
the results back against the research data.